The first piece I wrote each week focused on either supporting a favorite ATS or a game total. These pieces are 7-1 overall, bet favorites are 5-1, and the total bet is 2-0. Well, there are two totals that I like for Week 10. In general, I like OVERs. Give me a burst of chaos and fireworks. However, I am not on the EXTREME train this week. Give me some boring good defensive football.
When playing UNDER in a football game, I look for two things: inefficiency on offense and strength on defense. A team may be giving up the yard but is giving up the score? A team may be going down the field, but is it prone to scoring off the field instead of a touchdown? It may not always be so black and white, but it would be a good starting point. Here are two UNDER games for Week 10.
Unproductive crimes: check. Both the Bulls and Owls average under 40 on offense, 5.6 yards or worse per game. Temple falls short, especially offensively, averaging just 1.9 red zone laps per game. This is the second worst case on FBS, ahead of only UMass. The Owls are also third worst for goals scored. Temple’s offense has had a total of 12 touchdowns in eight games this season, with quarterback EJ Warner accounting for eight of those scores.
At least one effective defense: check. Even though the owls are poor on offense, there is a positivity on defense. In three FBS home games, Temple allowed a total of four touchdowns while scoring four field goals. One of those touchdowns came with an explosive 84-yard run from Tulsa. No player has ever played a game like this with the Bulls, but the RB unit is in the top 40 yards per carry. Also, Temple’s defense is in the top 30 in the third down conversions allowed. Wait for a slug.
Neither Rebels nor Aztecs can pass (101 and 115 yards per pass attempt). Neither attack can run effectively (63 and 73 yards per rushing attempt) and neither team can score. UNLV averages 24 points per game, but only 19 away points, while San Diego State averages 17 points. After losing his starting QB to injury, Rebels backup QB Cameron Friel was less productive in three starts, averaging 16 tries and 114 passing yards per game with just two touchdown passes to an interception. UNLV has had that kind of production and will likely lack WR2 on Kyle Williams, who suffered a leg injury in last week’s Notre Dame game. Williams accounts for one-third of the Rebels’ point scoring points.
The Aztecs are a heavy attack lent to the UNDERs. This season already 3-5 against UNDER and 1-3 against UNDER at home. Expect a slugfest part deux.